The modelling (read below in full) was presented to the UK’s top scientific advisory body Sage by one of its sub groups, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational (SPI-M-O).
This committee of academics has done modelling work throughout the pandemic and has looked at the impact vaccination will have on hospital admissions, infections and deaths.
Its findings suggest that a third wave is inevitable but that the size of the spike in cases depends on the effectiveness of vaccines, the speed at which restrictions are eased and the impact new variants have on transmission and illness.
It suggests that the resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths will be “dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine”.
“Maintaining a large reduction in transmission from such measures after Step 4 [England’s plans to remove all restrictions from June 21] is taken is almost certain to reduce the size of the subsequent resurgence.
This latest modelling reinforces this finding, as lower adherence to baseline measures and the resulting increased transmission could lead to a peak close in scale to that seen in January 2021.”
The paper looks at a range of possibilities what we can expect from Covid as we ease restrictions going into the summer.
It takes into account a range of difference sources including modelling from the University of Warwick, Imperial College London and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
“Scenarios with little transmission reduction after step 4 [full lifting of restrictions planned for June in England] or with pessimistic but plausible vaccine efficacy assumptions can result in resurgences in hospitalisations of a similar scale to January 2021.”
The paper suggests that the resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths will dominated by those who have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.
“The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively.
This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in
the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for
more serious illness than unvaccinated
Results of the central scenario of the Warwick model, showing the age and vaccine statusof those admitted to hospital (left) or dying (right) over time. Top plots are absolute numbers, bottom plots are proportions.
As soon as the model was made public Fact-checkers tried to debunk and downplay the fact that 60 -70% of those who took 2 doses on the vaccines will dominate the third wave.
Here is the verdict by Grace Rahman of Full Fact:
Modelling suggests that when a third wave occurs, hospitalisations and deaths will mostly be in those who’ve been vaccinated. This is because so many vulnerable people will have been vaccinated by then, not because the vaccine is harming them.
And yet, the fact-checker insists vaccines have nothing to do with the third-wave.
However, we will let our readers decide. Let us know what you think in the comments below.
https://greatgameindia.com/third-wave-two-vaccines-deaths/ (September 23, 2020)
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